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Record Breakers….
What is the record for the number of reds that have been recorded in a row on a roulette table? Actually, we are interested in any of the even money bets, so red/black, even/odd, high/low and so on.
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This question is particularly interesting for players of the Martingale Roulette system and goes right to the heart of the Gambler’s Fallacy- that mistaken belief that if you see 5 reds in a row, the next result is more likely to be a black. This is a myth, of course- each and every roulette spin is what’s known in statistics as a mutually exclusive event. There is always an equal chance of red and black coming up on an individual spin- the result is in no way affected by previous results.
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Marty System
Martingale players are also interested in this question, because this system involves you doubling your bet after a loss. It’s generally played on the even money bets, and the idea is that at some point you will win and claw back all of your previous losses.
Roulette 26
Roulette is a casino game named after the French word meaning little wheel.In the game, players may choose to place bets on either a single number, various groupings of numbers, the colors red or black, whether the number is odd or even, or if the numbers are high (19–36) or low (1–18).
Players often look out for long strings of the same result, such as R,R,R,R,R. They’ll then bet on black in the hope that the results will flip back to black to restore the long term equilibrium, something that the D’Alembert system also tries to do.
If you are going to play the Martingale…….
Roulette 23
Start your bets low and choose a table with a high limit. That way you will at least give yourself the biggest room for manoeuvre if you suffer a string of losses.
Luxury Casino accepts Martingale betsBut if you experience 10 reds in a row, that will blow most Martingale players out of the water, as they’ll either throw in the towel or hit the table limits, after which they won’t be able to double their bets and cover their losses. It’s difficult to figure out the best roulette strategy under these circumstances.
Repeat after me……
These long strings of the same even money results are rare, but they do happen, so you need to factor this risk in if you are playing the Martingale. There are two main risks to this system- one is that you experience a very long string of the same result. The other is that the ball drops in to the zero pocket- that pesky little area that gives the casino its house edge.
You can devise strategies to counter this of course. You could bet with the flow of results rather than against it after you see, say, 5 in a row (but you might have picked the exact time that this wheel of all roulette wheels decides to behave more “normally”). You could also choose a game that offers La Partage which will at least soften the blow of the ball landing in the zero pocket. La Partage is a rule followed by some casinos where they refund half your even money bet when the zero drops in. Many French roulette games offer this.
The Record For the Number Of Reds in a Row
So, this will scare you Martingale players! What is the record for the number of reds in a row? Check out this picture from the Rio All Suite Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. This had all the punters thinking that the wheel was rigged- 7 reds came up in a row (you will see 7 in a row at some point for sure) but these were all the number 19!
Wow
The record for the number of reds in a row was set in the US in 1943 when the colour came up 32 times in a row. The probability of this happening on a European Roulette table is (18/37) to the power of 32 which comes to 1 in 10,321,314,387.
it has also been reported that red came up 39 times in a row in the Casino Monte Carlo, Monaco.
You can see how it doesn’t come up much, but it can happen! Luckily, I should think if anyone was playing the Martingale on that table, they hit the table limits WELL before the 32nd spin.
That’s a Slim Chance, But it Happened
This was probably seen on an American roulette table which makes it even more incredible, because in this case the probability of it happening was (18/38) to the power of 32 which comes to 1 in 24,230,084,485, almost 2.5 times less likely because the American wheel has 2 zeros.
Here’s the thing though- on the 32nd spin, the probability of the next spin coming up red or black was the same- 47.3%. Talking about individual spins and 32 spins is a whole different ball game, and in roulette you can only bet on one spin of the wheel.
If you do a search on Yahoo, you’ll see that many people claim to have seen over 10 in a row on the roulette table. One guy claims to have seen over 15 at least 5 times (I guess we don’t know how much roulette he plays to gauge the percentage of his visits that this represents). Even so, it does happen. 5 in a row, 6 in a row, 7 in a row, 8 in a row and so on is going to happen more frequently. 14 in a row seems to be the big one that people are talking about in their personal experiences.
What About Black?
The weird thing I find about these stories, is that everyone always talks about red. I mean, what about the record number of blacks in a row? Or the record number of evens in a row? Or odds? Or high numbers? Or low numbers?
There is a famous session where a roulette ball on a specific wheel landed on black 26 times in a row in a Monte Carlo Casino in the summer of 1913- August 18 to be precise. This even spawned the name “Monte Carlo Fallacy”. Players at the table lost millions of francs betting against the black.
But generally, all the noise is on red, right?
Why People See Red and Not Black
I think here we are into human psychology. Red is an emotive colour, and it’s the one that people talk about the most. Black also gets noticed to a lesser extent, but the others? There has probably been a case of 20 high numbers or odd numbers occurring in a row in a casino, but no-one probably noticed.
So, this brings up an interesting point for us, one that we touch on in our Even Money Switcher system.
If you are tracking the even money results, you don’t just need to bet on red/black. You can look for patterns on the other bets as well. 23 reds in a row has been documented, but I have never heard of 23 high odd red numbers in a row.
Maybe it happened and no-one noticed!
Albert Einstein supposedly once said: “No one can win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.”
Although I wouldn’t normally question Einstein, this statement isn’t true. In fact, you can use Einstein’s specialist subject, physics, to help you win. Or you can find a biased wheel that makes some numbers more likely to come up.
What Einstein actually meant was that there is no mathematical trick that can help you win at roulette. Each spin is an independent trial and, in the long run, the casino will win. This is different to a game such as Blackjack where the probabilities change as cards are dealt.
But some believe that it is possible to exploit the way the roulette wheel, and the betting cloth, is laid out to give themselves an advantage. The idea is that you can make bets on the layout in a way that you are guaranteed to win. But is this really possible?
Roulette wheel layout
Like a dartboard, the layout of a roulette wheel did not come about by accident. It was carefully planned and exhibits certain properties. In fact, there are two different layouts. An American wheel and a European wheel. The two layouts are shown below.
Notice that the American wheel has two zeroes. This is important as it doubles the advantage for the casino. On a European wheel you would expect to lose, in the long run, 2.7% of any money you bet with. On an American wheel you can expect to lose 5.26% (if you are interested in the mathematics of roulette, the video at the end will show you how these odds are calculated).
The numbers are arranged in a different order on each wheel but there are some similarities in the patterns. On both wheels, the red and black numbers alternate around the wheel, although if you removed the zeroes, the American wheel would have consecutive reds and blacks. The wheels are also structured so that the low numbers (1-18) and the high numbers (19-36) should alternate as much as possible.
On a European wheel, this is only violated where the 5 sits next to the 10 (both low numbers). On the American wheel, there are many examples where this rule is violated. It is for this reason that the American wheel is considered not as balanced as the European wheel. Both wheels also try to distribute odd and even numbers as evenly as possible. But again there are a number of violations of this rule on both wheels.
On the European wheel there are two other interesting symmetries. First, all the low red numbers and black high numbers are on one side of the zero, and the high red numbers and low black numbers are on the other side. Second, the sequence 29-7-28-12-35-3-26-0-32 contains no numbers between 13 and 24 (the second dozen). You can place a bet on the whole of the second dozen, with odds of 2-1.
So, can we beat the maths?
A simple search on Google will return many (possibly millions) of systems for playing (and supposedly winning) roulette. Some easy, some complicated, some well described, some not so.
A system should really be a combination of a playing strategy and a money management strategy. Perhaps the best known money management strategy is the Martingale system. This system is guaranteed to win money as long as you have enough of a bankroll to double your bet after every loss and you do not hit the table limit, which you will quickly do so. The Martingale system is probably the quickest way to bankruptcy known to man.
Whatever betting strategy, and money management strategy, you choose, they all suffer from the same fate. Assuming that each number on the wheel has the same probability of being selected – meaning the wheel is not biased – the maths means the casino will always win. The system may look good, and may work in the short term, but when one of the numbers comes up that you have not bet on you will lose and the casino will move towards its win expectation (2.7% or 5.26%).
Some systems involve betting on many numbers, perhaps 20. In this case, you will win quite often as you are covering more than half of the numbers. But when one of the numbers does not turn up (and it will almost half the time) you lose all of the 20 bets you have made. This will often wipe out any wins to date.
Any system, so far devised, can be analysed to show that there is a win expectation for the casino. The following video shows the maths.
You might as well place a single chip on the same number every time and hope that it appears more than it should during the short time that you are playing.
We can dress up the layout of the wheel, the layout of the betting cloth, our number selection and our money management system however we like, but the maths is always there, quietly working against us. You might as well just have fun, pick random numbers and trust to Lady Luck. Either that, or do as Einstein suggested and steal chips (not that we’d recommend it).